Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of the further declines in energy prices.
Release of key macroeconomic numbers, monthly derivatives expiry, and global cues are likely to drive stock market movement this week, according to analysts. Markets will also be reacting to remarks made by the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, they said. "This week, we expect the market to witness a gradual up-move with stock-specific action.
Deposit rates for non-resident Indians may rise following Tuesday's rate hike by the US central bank Federal Reserve and due to the impact of forthcoming India Millennium Deposit redemptions worth over $7 billion, bankers said on Wednesday.
From the 30 Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Bharti Airtel, Hindustan Unilever, Kotak Mahindra Bank, UltraTech Cement, Adani Ports, and Tata Steel were the biggest gainers. ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, HCL Technologies, Tata Consultancy Services, and Larsen & Toubro were among the laggards.
Gold prices hit a fresh record high of Rs 84,900 per 10 grams in the national capital on Friday, driven by robust domestic demand and strong global cues, according to the All India Sarafa Association. The precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity continued its ascent for the third straight session, jumping by Rs 1,100 to hit a new peak of Rs 84,900 per 10 grams.
The US Federal Reserve rate cut on Wednesday, the 13th after May 16, 2000 may prove to be a boon to Indian depositary receipts.
Fed keeps rates unchanged, sets up possible December hike
With 7 per cent economic growth, India is not creating enough jobs as reflected by the number of applicants for vacant posts in some states, Reserve Bank's former governor Raghuram Rajan said and suggested the government needs to focus on promoting labour-intensive industries to generate employment. Rajan further said some Indians, especially those at upper level, are comfortable and have high incomes, but consumption growth from the lower half of the country has still not recovered to pre-pandemic level.
Foreign investors have poured Rs 57,359 crore into Indian equities in September, making it the highest inflow in nine months, mainly driven by a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. With this infusion, foreign portfolio investors' (FPIs) investment in equities has surpassed the Rs 1 lakh crore mark in 2024, data with the depositories showed. Going ahead, FPI inflows are likely to remain robust, driven by global interest rate easing and India's strong fundamentals.
Investors' wealth plummeted by Rs 5.49 lakh crore on Friday as markets faced a massive correction tracking a weak trend in global peers and fresh foreign fund outflows. Falling for the third day running, the 30-share BSE Sensex tumbled 1,017.23 points or 1.24 per cent to settle at 81,183.93. During the day, it plunged 1,219.23 points or 1.48 per cent to 80,981.93.
The index could be vulnerable to a bigger fall given the present market dynamics.
Fed seen holding rates steady as investor confidence shakes
It is surprising that central bankers around the world have cautioned the US Federal Reserve against raising rates.
Jewellery stores remained deserted as buyers deferred their non-essential purchases awaiting softness in gold prices.
The central bank maintained its bias towards a rate hike.
The rupee has remained largely stable against the US greenback in the current calendar year (CY 2024), depreciating by just 0.59 per cent so far. However, it has considerably weakened against the euro and pound. The local currency has depreciated by 1.6 per cent against the euro and 5.6 per cent against the pound, as both currencies strengthened against the dollar during this period.
'The problem is that the bubble may not only be in valuations, but also in investors' minds.'
Three major central banks have hit the zero limit, the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.
'Consider 40% to 50% in equities, 10% in gold as a hedge, and the remaining 30% to 40% split between multi-asset funds and hybrid funds.'
Stock markets closed lower for the second straight day on Friday amid relentless foreign fund outflows and losses in blue-chip stocks Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and State Bank of India. Benchmark BSE Sensex declined by 55.47 points or 0.07 per cent to settle at 79,486.32. During the day, it tanked 424.42 points or 0.53 per cent to 79,117.37.
From the Sensex basket, JSW Steel, Tata Steel, UltraTech Cement, NTPC, Larsen & Toubro and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. Titan, Nestle, Bharti Airtel and IndusInd Bank were among the laggards.
If the Fed hikes policy rates for the dollar, that will probably mean a move into US Treasuries for speculators.
A gradual increase works best for the US, as well as global markets, says Nizam Idris managing director, head of strategy (fixed income and currencies), Macquarie Bank.
The week's losses wiped out investor wealth worth Rs 18.43 trillion, with the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms now at Rs 441 trillion.
Equities went into a tailspin on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank surprised the market with a mid-cycle rate hike in a bid to tame soaring inflation.
Domestic fund houses are of the view that the US Fed's status quo stance on rates is a positive indication for RBI to lower its lending rates.
Investors' sentiments will be guided by a host of domestic and global macroeconomic data announcements this week, along with the trading activity of foreign investors and trends in world stocks, analysts said. Besides, the rupee-dollar trend and movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude will also be crucial in dictating terms in the market, experts added.
Benchmark Sensex hit the historic 83,000 level for the first time on Thursday and the Nifty settled at a lifetime high after a rally in blue-chip shares, surge in global markets and foreign fund inflows. A sharp fag-end rally drove the 30-share BSE Sensex to the 83,000 level for the first time. The barometer surged 1,593.03 points or 1.95 per cent to hit its lifetime intra-day peak of 83,116.19 in the last hour of trade.
During the September quarter (Q2FY25), Hindustan Zinc's (HZL's) revenue was reported at Rs 8,300 crore (up 22 per cent year-on-year or Y-o-Y, and 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q), marginally above consensus. Operating profit stood at Rs 4,100 crore (up 31 per cent Y-o-Y and 5 per cent Q-o-Q), also a small beat. The operating profit margin was 50 per cent, up from 48.5 per cent in Q1FY25.
The Federal Open Market Committee, which decides on rates, struck a positive note, saying economic activity had continued to pick up in recent months and the housing sector is improving.
Invest with a 5 to 7 year horizon so that you are able to ride out price volatility and benefit from the long-term trends of demand and macroeconomic shifts.
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week, according to analysts.
The recent weakness of the rupee has been due to yuan's devaluation.
The US Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 per cent, only the second increase in a decade.
There is anecdotal evidence that the US economy is really, sharply slowing.
The US Fed interest rate decision, ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data and FII trading activity are the major triggers that will drive stock markets this week, analysts said. Investors would also track global market trends and the movement in global oil prices for further cues. "This week, the focus will shift to global cues, particularly the US markets," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd said.
'2025 is the year to build a portfolio for the future. Focus this year should be on valuations and visible growth.'
Among the Sensex firms, NTPC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Wipro, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Tata Steel, Asian Paints, Bharti Airtel, Power Grid, Titan and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Tata Motors and HCL Technologies were the laggards.
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